Friday, December 05, 2014

U.S. Economy Added 321,000 Jobs in November; Unemployment Rate Is 5.8% - NYTimes.com






A sign at a restaurant in San Rafael, Calif. Since February, monthly hiring nationwide has consistently stayed above 200,000. Credit Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Employers added 321,000 jobs in November, a very healthy showing that echoes other positive economic data recently and bodes well for the crucial holiday retail season underway.The unemployment rate remained unchanged from last month at 5.8 percent, the Labor Department said Friday.

Government statisticians also revised upward the number of jobs added in September and October by 44,000, another good sign. Significantly, average hourly earnings surged 0.4 percent in November, twice what economists had been expecting and a sign the healthier economy is finally translating into wage gains for ordinary workers. Over the last 12 months, however, earnings are up only 2.1 percent.

Wall Street had been expecting payrolls to grow by 230,000 in November, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged. November’s gain was the largest monthly jump in payrolls in nearly three years.

Despite the deep economic frustration many Americans feel, evident in everything from public opinion surveys to water cooler chats to last month’s Congressional elections, the American economy has made significant progress this year. In November 2013, for instance, the unemployment rate was 7 percent, and the jobless rate five years ago this month was 9.9 percent.

A Federal Reserve survey of economic conditions across the country released Wednesday reported healthier consumer spending in many regions, likely as a result of lower gas prices, as well as gains in hiring.

Last month, average gasoline prices in the United States fell below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2010, amid a global plunge in crude prices. Crude oil has kept dropping since then, to about $66 a barrel, which suggests prices at the pump have further to drop.

As of Monday, gas prices in the United States averaged $2.77 a gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with $3.26 in December 2013. If gas prices stay where they are, the typical household will save roughly $600 over the next 12 months.

The overall expansion of the economy, as measured by the annual rate of growth in gross domestic product per quarter, has also been picking up steam.

In late November, the Commerce Department revised upward its estimate of the growth rate in the third quarter to 3.9 percent from an initial figure of 3.5 percent. Output rose at annual rate of 4.6 percent in the second quarter, a snapback from the contraction in the first few months of the year.

Wall Street, too, has been surging, with stocks hitting highs repeatedly in recent weeks.

Finally, the section of the economy that helped lead the way down — housing — has made an impressive recovery, at least in terms of home values, if not new construction.

The real estate sector could be dealt a setback if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next year, as is widely expected, but in more affluent areas in particular, surging home prices have already helped restore much of the confidence that was shattered in the financial crisis of 2008 and the deep recession that followed.

So why the persistent gloom, not to mention anger?

Part of the problem is that even though employment is back above pre-recession levels — the eight million jobs lost between 2008 and 2010 have been more than made up since then — millions of new workers have joined the work force over that period.

What’s more, wage gains for the vast majority of Americans who kept their jobs throughout the downturn and then the recovery been very modest. The 2 percent wage increase over the last year is barely enough to keep up with inflation or rising costs for many services, like education, insurance and health care.

For wages to show meaningful gains over a sustained period of time, as was the case in the 1990s, the unemployment rate would likely have to drop below 5 percent, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago.

For some highly skilled workers in sectors like technology and finance, wages have been rising sharply, as have stock holdings and 401(k) portfolios.

But unlike in the 1990s, the gains for the broad mass of middle-skilled and low-skilled workers have been scant, Ms. Swonk said.

“Some boats were lifted up more than others in the 1990s, but all boats did go up some back then,” she said. “That hasn’t been the case lately.”





U.S. Economy Added 321,000 Jobs in November; Unemployment Rate Is 5.8%

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