After openly acknowledging on Monday afternoon that it had not made a $58 million bond payment, the government quietly disclosed in a financial filing later that afternoon that it had temporarily stopped making contributions of $92 million a month into a fund that is used to make payments on an additional $13 billion in bond debt. A small payment from the fund is due on Sept. 1.
Unlike the bond payments that went into default on Monday, the ones coming due are on general obligation bonds — the kind many investors have been led to believe would never go into default because the issuer’s full faith, credit and taxing authority stand behind them.
Puerto Rico issued such bonds over the years to raise money for a variety of government projects, and investors bought them eagerly because the island’s constitution explicitly guaranteed that such bonds would be paid.
The general obligation payment due to bondholders on Sept. 1 is for a mere $5 million, an amount so small that even if the redemption fund is empty at that point, Puerto Rico could still produce the cash right out of general revenue. It would presumably want to do so because of the constitutional requirement.
But a much bigger payment on the general obligation bonds, about $370 million, comes due on Jan. 1.
If Puerto Rico misses that one, “it would be an earthquake for the markets,” said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, a financial research firm.
“Defaulting on the Public Finance Corporation bonds was a change in direction,” he said, referring to the government unit whose bonds have been in default since Monday. “Defaulting on the general obligation bonds would change the game entirely.”
Mr. Fabian said he doubted Puerto Rico would risk such a move.
Still, market participants trying to understand Puerto Rico’s overall negotiating strategy see that a pattern may be taking shape. Monday’s bond default was preceded by a missed payment into a similar pot of money, collected in advance to make scheduled payments on the Public Finance Corporation’s bonds.
It was not paid as scheduled on July 15 because it depended, in turn, on the Puerto Rico Legislature making an appropriation by the end of June, when the current budget was enacted. No appropriation was made, but the significance was not widely recognized at the time.
Two weeks later, when no prepayment was made, officials in Puerto Rico said it was still not tantamount to a default. But by the time the actual default took place, on Monday, active market participants were not surprised.
The Public Finance Corporation issues what is known as a moral obligation bond — a type of bond that gives investors little recourse in the event of a default, and the financial institutions that hold the debt still appeared to be assessing their options — including possible lawsuits over the default — on Tuesday. Puerto Rico bonds continued their long, steady decline on Tuesday.
Around the time the budget was being completed, something else happened that now seems portentous, even though few noticed it at the time: A 1976 law was amended, allowing Puerto Rico to stop making monthly prepayments on general obligation bonds. The suspension took effect in the 2016 fiscal year, which began on July 1.
When Mr. Fabian heard about the amendment he called it “most alarming” in a newsletter his firm publishes. True, the amendment meant only that Puerto Rico would stop putting the bond prepayments into something like an escrow account. But it also meant that when Jan. 1 rolls around, $370 million will be due to the general obligation bondholders and unless something changes in the meantime, the money will not be there.
Puerto Rican officials said the suspension was not a harbinger of anything and should not be cause for alarm.
“The suspension of these deposits does not imply a breach with the bondholders on the date of payment,” the government said in a statement when the amendment was passed.
The governor, Alejandro García Padilla, said late in June that the island’s debt was “unpayable,” and called for a “negotiated moratorium” on the debt, to give the island time and space to make big structural changes in its economy.
Since then, investors have been saying they want to help Puerto Rico, but they disagree that a debt moratorium is what the island needs. If any debt must go unpaid, they have suggested, let it be revenue bonds, which historically were considered less reliable than general obligation bonds anyway.
The bill now before Congress, to give Puerto Rico limited access to bankruptcy court, might produce that outcome. It would let Puerto Rico send a few of its big public enterprises, which issue revenue bonds, to be restructured in bankruptcy. The general obligation bonds would presumably be untouched.
But the bill has not progressed. Republicans and Democrats alike are deeply divided over whether to help Puerto Rico — and even how. In the meantime, plans for restructuring the island’s entire $72 billion debt are being devised by a working group established by the governor. The deadline for the plan is also Sept. 1.
A version of this article appears in print on August 5, 2015, on page B1 of the New York edition with the headline: Puerto Rico Has Another Debt Worry on Horizon. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
Puerto Rico Has Another Debt Worry on Horizon
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